SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Debt Consolidation Loans: Home Equity or Unsecured Loan?

According to the Federal Reserve, Americans carry around $5,800 in credit card debt from month to month. Making the minimum monthly payment on that debt would take 30 years to pay off, and include an additional $15,000 in interest. According to the Administrative Office of the Courts, 2,078,415 bankruptcies were filed in 2005–the largest number of bankruptcy petitions in the history of the federal courts. With the new tougher bankruptcy laws, people are looking for alternative ways of managing their debts.Debt consolidation loans are a popular way for people to free up money each month by consolidating several monthly credit card payments into a single lower interest loan. But, the question is whether it’s best to consolidate those debts into a home equity loan or an unsecured debt consolidation loan.Debt Consolidation Home Equity LoansA home equity loan is a one-time lump sum of money you receive in the form of a second mortgage that is secured by the equity in your home. Equity is the difference between how much the home is worth and how much altogether you own on it.A second mortgage loan is usually a fixed interest loan with rates that runs slightly higher than those of a first mortgage loan, unless it’s a 125% Loan To Value (LTV) loan that allows homeowners to borrow beyond the value of their homes. Those rates usually run much higher that other second mortgages and origination fees can be as much as 10% of the loan balance.Home equity loans usually are repaid in a shorter time than first mortgages, with repayment periods typically being between 5 and 20 years. Like a first mortgage, you have to pay off the balance of a home equity loan when you sell your home, so it’s best to find out if there are any prepayment penalties or balloon payments on your loan in case you decide to pay the loan early or sell your house before the loan matures.Benefits and Drawbacks of Home Equity LoansThe main benefit of a debt consolidation home equity loan is that most states allow you to deduct up to 100% of the interest you pay on your taxes. Other benefits include the fact that home equity loans typically have a lower interest rate than unsecured loans, and borrowers can get relatively large amounts of money.While home equity loans have attractive benefits, there are also major drawbacks. One is that if you fail to meet the payment schedule required by the loan, the lender can foreclose on your home and you will lose it even if you go into bankruptcy. Secured loans are not dischargeable by Chapter 7 bankruptcy.Another major drawback is that exploitative lenders target homeowners, especially those with low incomes or poor credit. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), there are many predatory scams, including:· Equity Stripping: The loan is based on the equity in your home, not on your ability to repay it.· Credit Insurance Packing: The lender adds credit insurance to your loan, which you may not need.· Bait and Switch: The lender offers one set of loan terms when you apply, then pressures you into higher charges when you sign to complete the transaction.· Deceptive Loan Servicing: The lender doesn’t provide you with accurate or complete account statements and payoff figures. That makes it nearly impossible for you to determine how much you’ve paid and how much you owe.If you are not sure whether a home equity loan is right for your needs, you may want to consider an unsecured personal debt consolidation loan.Personal Unsecured Debt Consolidation LoanIf your credit is relatively good, and you are employed, you may be able to obtain an unsecured personal loan to pay off some or all of your high-interest credit card debts. With a personal unsecured debt consolidation loan, there is no collateral against the loan. This means that the lender is relying only on your promise to repay the loan according to the loan’s terms and conditions. While the loan amounts are not as much as those of debt consolidation home equity loans, they can amount up to $10,000. Loans up to $1,000 may not even require a credit check.When shopping for a personal unsecured debt consolidation loan, it is important to shop around for the best rates and loan terms. Unsecured debt consolidation loans have lower interest rates than credit cards, but they generally have higher interest rates than secured personal loans like home equity loans. Some loans allow you to take anywhere from one to five years to repay, which can ease financial stress.Benefits and Drawbacks of Personal Unsecured Debt Consolidation Loans
The main benefit of getting an unsecured debt consolidation loan is that if you are forced into bankruptcy, the unsecured debt may be discharged in the bankruptcy proceedings.The main drawback is that you must have good to excellent credit to get an unsecured debt consolidation loan, and the loan amounts are typically less than a home equity loan. The interest rates on unsecured debt consolidation loans are typically much higher than that of a home equity loan, and it is not unusual for a debt consolidator to obtain a commission of 10% or more on your new loan.In ConclusionThe answer to the question of whether you should get a debt consolidation home equity loan or unsecured personal loan all depends on your financial circumstances. If you have relatively good credit, are employed and only a few debts you need to consolidate, you may benefit from getting an unsecured personal loan. However, if your credit is not so good or you have a lot of debts, a home equity loan may your best answer.

Top 3 Reasons Small Businesses Fail at Marketing

I often speak to groups of small business owners and I keep hearing the same comment over and over again with many of them saying that marketers don’t matter or marketing doesn’t matter anymore.There are many reasons I’ve heard as to why marketing doesn’t matter: “all my business comes by referral,” “I never spent money on marketing and my business grew,” “marketing is a waste of money,” “I see no value in marketing,” “marketing is all luck so why spend money on it,” and so on.Oh, how they are so very wrong! Below are the top 3 reasons why:1. Their definition of marketing is wrongWhen business owners tell me that marketing doesn’t matter, they usually have a totally different understanding of what marketing is than those who recognise how marketing contributes to business goals where it enables you to charge the most money you can for your services and products.Marketing is first about spending time building a solid foundation based on strategy before proposing a series of tactics aimed at lifting sales. Until the business finds a way to change the context of how their ideal customer views what they do, and then becomes become the obvious choice provider, they’ll find that their marketing efforts never seem to build momentum or gain any return on investment.You must be able to enter the conversation taking place in the head of your customers. Or, to look at it in a different way, to be able to address the number one question on your customer’s mind at exactly the right time.So, how do you do this? The conversation that is taking place in every prospective customer’s mind revolves around two major points. There is a problem they have, and that they don’t want… and there is a result that they want, and they don’t have.Those who often misunderstand marketing believe that it is only about advertising campaigns, brochures, flyers, website, email marketing, SEO, tradeshows, social media, copy, etc. These are the tactics – the way you implement your marketing. I’d argue that marketing is essentially the core of business strategy because it is about understanding the current customer, tapping into their fears, their goals and their aspirations and then creating products and services that the ideal customer is willing to buy from a brand they now they know, like and trust.2. They believe either they or their co-worker can do itSometimes in the “do it all yourself” world of small business (or even big business when it comes to it), it’s difficult to identify the areas that require outside help. A business may be able to set up their newsletter, add plugins to WordPress, write a Facebook or LinkedIn post, and clumsily create header graphics, but you need somebody who is trained, practiced, and skilled at looking strategically and holistically at the marketplace, understanding the customer, and then creating unique opportunities based on this understanding.Just think about it for a minute; just because you have a calculator and excel does that mean you are an accountant? If you have a ruler, pencil and have watched some episodes of Grand Designs – does that make you an architect? If you post regularly to your friends on Facebook and Instagram – does that mean you are a social media expert?So why do small businesses believe that by buying a Mac and some software they will become a designer, marketer and communications expert?It needs to be led by a strategic marketer who can then develop an integrated marketing approach. Can you or your co-worker do this? In some cases, you can. But those who can are most likely to either come from marketing or consulting backgrounds where they have transferable skills and experience defining AND delivering against a growth strategy.If you are a small business, you need somebody who will have a very solid, process, streamlined, consistent, repeatable approach. First, they will research and learn about your company in great depth, the dynamics of the marketplace and identify shifts, trends, and changes. From there, the strategic marketer will be able to present the different elements of your marketing plan in logical order of how you should construct them, update them, or revise them; and identify the key areas you should be focusing on – be it generating leads, converting leads, increasing transactions right down to changing prices.3. They hire the wrong marketing helpThere is a huge misunderstanding around marketing strategy, marketing tactics, and marketing execution.There is a difference between being strategically capable, creatively capable and executionally capable.Small business owners don’t hire a strategic marketing coach/firm to develop creative graphics and headers; nor should you hire an advertising/graphic design agency to handle marketing strategy. A small business doesn’t need to hire a consultant or a firm who is a strong marketing executor when their biggest need is a strategy for sustainable growth. You may get more attention, but not the best results.